Overview
The Challenges
Hydrological variability arising from future climate change exacerbates the uncertainty around energy security, which could make Ethiopia’s major hydropower projects less viable. In light of this, the client – The Cities Alliance – wanted to investigate what sustainable, low-carbon energy options secondary Ethiopian cities could draw on to enjoy reliable, climate-resilient and inclusive growth.
The Solution
Recognising the fact that adequate and reliable energy is at the heart of economic development, both at a city and national level, we unpacked the range of energy challenges facing Ethiopian cities. We interrogated the duality of Ethiopia’s massive planned hydropower expansion and the likelihood that much of the new power generated by large dams would be exported to secure vital foreign exchange. We also examined future challenges to hydropower from a changing climate and rainfall regime. Amongst other things, our research delved into the staggering reliance on biomass energy, as well as why Ethiopian secondary cities – which ostensibly have high rates of connectivity to the grid – still only enable Ethiopians one of the lowest rates of per capita consumption of electricity per year, relative to other East African nations.
Results
Our insights into Ethiopia’s complex energy landscape allowed us to recommend a transformative solution: a move towards decentralized energy decision-making as well as entry points for cities (and the private sector) to participate more actively in energy generation and supply.
The project equipped us to ground our analysis in the realities of smaller towns and cities in Ethiopia, reflecting the conditions experienced by the majority of the country’s people. At the same time, our study of the heavily centralised power system familiarised us with the federal government’s mandate and role in Ethiopia. Bridging this central-regional dynamic enabled us to support Ethiopia with further policy shifts in the energy sector, building on the foundation laid in this assignment. In particular, Pegasys was well-positioned to examine the energy sector critically as part of our review of Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy in subsequent years, and thereafter to bring our accumulated knowledge of the country and its energy landscape to bear on the revision of Ethiopia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), i.e. its principal set of international commitments on climate change action through 2030.
Additionally, this project substantially expanded Pegasys’ network of high-performing national experts in Ethiopia, widening our capacity to deliver results across the country through our associates. Over the years, we have built on these relationships to exponentially increase our impact in Ethiopia in a range of sectors.
The Numbers
The assignment allowed us to directly grapple with what most developing have to solve for as a result of climate change: how can effective and reliable energy systems be both low-carbon and climate resilient? This is the imperative the world as a whole now faces as we – the global community – design a climate-responsive and climate-compatible future for our planet, and Pegasys as advisors had the remarkable opportunity to unpack this early on in the Ethiopian setting.
Daniel Seddon-Daines, Managing Principal
