Climate Change « Pegasys

Climate Change

Climate change is globally recognised as one of the greatest challenges facing the world in the 21st Century. In much of the world, the challenge centres on climate change adaptation, as changing climates and increased variability become the norm. Southern Africa in particular is regarded as highly vulnerable the climate change and variability, in part due to extreme climatic changes anticipated in the region and in part due to poor institutional and financial capacity to respond to the shifting conditions.

Pegasys has rapidly established itself as a leading group on climate adaptation issues in Africa and globally. Our focus is on the water-climate interface, particularly as many climate change impacts are manifest through changes in water resources (too little, too much, not at the right time, or of poor quality). Adaptation is focussed on institutional and infrastructural responses within an uncertain future, requiring an ability to create adaptive management systems within the context of future impact scenarios. Pegasys provides strategic, institutional and technical expertise in this arena, driving cutting-edge research on climate change adaptation, providing strategic assessments of key vulnerabilities (hot spots) and drivers of vulnerability, and designing and implementing management and institutional responses to the anticipated vulnerabilities.

Pegasys has also been involved in the climate change mitigation debates, particularly focussing on the carbon markets and the opportunities to support sustainable development initiatives through the carbon trading. In this regard, Pegasys has provided strategic support to clients in their assessment of the market potential, high-level feasibility assessments and project initiation.

Latest projects

Regional Strategic Water-Climate Assessment
This seminal piece of work is assessing the possible water –related development impacts under changing climate conditions in three Southern African basins – the Zambezi River Basin, the Limpopo River Basin and the Okavango River Basin – with common conclusions drawn for the Southern African region as a whole. The study integrates climate and development futures to develop a series of bounded water scenarios (water futures), against which sector responses are assessed to identify sector impacts and vulnerabilities. Institutional overlays provide for the identification of possible response strategies, particularly focussing on those response strategies that are consistently across all water futures (win-win strategies).

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African Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
Pegasys is leading this Africa-wide assessment identifies the key vulnerability hot-spots on the continent, focussing on water-climate change impacts. Vulnerabilities are related to both surface and groundwater issues, and are driven by a combination of evidence of significant change, high levels of uncertainty, weak institutional capacity and low current levels of adaptation / adaptive capacity. The assessment provides the basis for detailed investigation of each of the identified hot-spots, to identify impacts, drivers of vulnerability and potential responses.

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Affects of water related climate change impacts on MDGs
Pegasys led this cutting-edge study linking climate change, water and development, through the MDG development indicators. The assessed of development drivers against climate-water drivers provides a mechanism to determine where drivers are synergistic or antagonistic, either supporting or undermining development. Particularly high risk areas could identified where negative development drivers where strengthened by climate change related water impacts, providing for very weak development outlooks.

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Assessing the impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems
Pegasys is the lead consultancy in this cutting-edge study by the World Bank and WWF on assessing the effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems, with a focus on developing a methodology for risk, including investment risk, assessment and the identification of vulnerability and impact response strategies. The methodology builds on a series of bounded future water scenarios and freshwater sensitivities to determine thresholds of impact and the trajectories towards those thresholds. Response strategies are linked to mechanisms to increase adaptive capacity or to reduce impact through judicious planning and investment.

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Climate change and human security in Southern Africa
This study by the commissioned by the British High Commission seeks to identify the Climate Change associated threats to human security in the Southern African region. A world-class team has been assembled to identify and assess these threats, with Pegasys leading the water sector elements of the assessment.

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Feasibility and design of the Regional Climate Change Programme
Pegasys is a core team member on the Regional Climate Change Programme, the premier Southern African regional climate initiative. The feasibility study considered the role of climate change in Southern African development, and was a key input to the global conclusion on the vulnerability of the region. The design study defined the areas of focus of the programme, identifying water, food, health and energy as the priority sectors, human and institutional capacity as the enabling factors, fiscal resources, business planning and adaptation finance (funds), as the funding mechanisms, and awareness and empowerment as critical communication elements. Implementation of the programme will stretch over 5 years, starting in March 2009.

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Climate Change portfolio: GWP Regional Technical Committee
Pegasys serves on the GWP RTEC, with primary responsibility for the climate change and water sector portfolio.